The trouble with walking to work......

.....is, of course, that you have to walk home again.



Or at least, under normal circumstances, it is difficult to think of any other possible objection against this carbon-friendly and healthy alternative to Kampala morning traffic jams. But in Uganda, the "walk to work" campaign has taken on a whole new significance. Led by a loose alliance among the leaders of opposition parties, this apparently innocuous campaign, ostensibly against high food and fuel prices, has provoked a powerful, many say disproportionate, reaction by the Ugandan government. Here's a little piece of visual evidence from the Monitor newspaper. It's certainly a deterrent to leaving the car keys at home.

But leaving aside the muscular response, what's driving the underlying problem of increasing food prices? Global commodity prices, especially oil, are one factor. Increasing regional demand, in particular from South Sudan, is also cited. But the fundamental law of supply and demand is the real driver. Quite simply, there is a supply-side problem, fanned by the increasing demand of a growing population. There's not enough production and, in Uganda at least, there certainly isn't enough storage capacity. I've written before about the remarkable informality of Uganda's food distribution systems and the reliance on fresh products for food - and the lack of buffer stocks of maize and rice in particular - mean that there are no smoothing mechanisms in times of plenty or scarcity

And prices are rocketing upwards, across the board. Matooke, potatoes, maize and beans have all seen increases of between 20-40% in recent months. Not surprisingly, increases in staple foods are also driving up the cost of dairy products, poultry and pork. Fish prices have doubled in the last two years or so, as a result of the depletion resulting from over-fishing in Lake Victoria and Uganda's other major lakes. It's at the bottom of the pyramid, where food costs make up the major part of the household budget, where the impact of inflation is felt the most. When the Ugandan President said, a few weeks ago, that increasing food prices were good for the farmer, he was right, up to a point. Commercial farmers may well make some hay while the sun shines, but the truth is that most small-scale farmers are net consumers, not suppliers, of agricultural products.





"It's the economy, stupid" was Bill Clinton's slogan in his successful campaign against George Bush in the 1992 presidential elections. It's a phrase that could apply to a number of the popular uprisings that have sent shivers down the spines of many longtime autocratic leaders across Africa and the Middle East.

The best response for the nation to the "walk to work" campaign is investment in the agriculture sector. Big fists will only make things worse.

A green and yellow melancholy

It's always a wrench, coming to the end of a play. This will be my last post about Twelfth Night, by some distance my most successful production so far. And while I couldn't have asked for a better cast, the real star was the English language, in Shakespeare's incomparable hands. Here are just a few of my favourites quotes from the play:-

This fellow is wise enough to play the fool.

You are now sailed into the north of my lady's opinion, where you will hang like an icicle on a Dutchman's beard.

You are all idle, shallow things. I am not of your element.

Let us draw the curtain and show you the picture.

Madam, I will.

A very dishonest paltry boy.

And thus the whirligig of time brings in his revenge.

Get him to say his prayers Sir Toby, get him to pray.

She sat like Patience on a monument, smiling at grief.

Virtue is beauty, but the beauteous evil ... are empty trunks o'erflourish'd by the Devil

And it is with a green and yellow melancholy that I say goodbye to the characters and the words. Plays are labours of love: maybe one day I'll be brave enough to choose the wonderfully-named Love's Labour's Lost.

Or what you will

To be performed at The National Theatre in Kampala in early April. "'Twill be admirable".

Banana Republic

Uganda is a true "banana republic", not in the disparaging meaning of the expression, first coined to describe the United Fruit empire in central America in the 1950s and 1960s, but in the significance of bananas as the preferred staple crop. Most Ugandans consume huge quantities every year - some estimates put daily consumption about 1 kg per day - mostly of matooke (cooking bananas) but also of the delicious sweet "apple" bananas pictured, and many other varieties.

Quite apart from their taste, bananas have been a great crop for Ugandan farmers, because they are incredibly easy to grow. Plant a sucker and, provided it rains, the sucker will grow rapidly and produce a truss - perhaps weighing 15 kg or more - within a year of planting. It needs little or no inputs and maintenance: nature does all the work. And indeed, once the banana plant is established, it will throw out further suckers which, left alone, will in turn grow and produce within a year. As with the potato in pre-blight Ireland, it is the easiest option for the farmer.

But, just as potato blight ravaged the Irish potato crop in the mid-19th century, causing a disastrous famine, so Uganda is falling victim to banana bacterial wilt disease. Bacterial wilt kills the banana plant and infects the soil. It spreads rapidly, mainly because transplanted suckers are the normal method of propagation. Experts estimate that crop losses may be in the region of $500 million per annum. This in itself is very significant, of course, but the slight reduction in supply of matooke to urban markets also results in substantial food price inflation.

Ugandan researchers have, with local and international support, been working on solutions to banana bacterial wilt. Indeed, my colleagues at the Kilimo Trust provided a grant to Uganda's National Banana Research Programme for this very purpose. And progress is being made: disease-free tissue-culture banana plantlets are available in Uganda; improved farming practices can restrict the spread of bacterial wilt. But perhaps the most promising solution is the most controversial: the incorporation of a sweet pepper gene into the banana to inhibit the transmission and spread of bacterial wilt.

There is a great deal of international hostility to GMOs - most of which, in my opinion, is based on emotion rather than fact - and this hostility presents itself among many in the donor community who finance national agricultural research and development bodies in Uganda and elsewhere in Africa. But they tend to overlook one very important fact of life in low-income countries; namely, that opposition to GMOs is driven by the wealthy, by people who have choices in the food that they eat. For the poor, the simple availability and affordability of food is infinitely more important than the manner in which it is produced.

Valentine's Day

Any excuse for a party! Kampala has taken Valentine's Day to its heart. Last night, the streets around the redlight district of Kabalagala were heaving with red-and-black-clad young people in search of one other. Indeed, a few, presumably unfortunate, stragglers could still be seen adorning the infamous Al's Bar as I drove to work this morning. Not bad for a Monday night.

What should be a charming celebration of love and affection has been transformed into a marketing feeding frenzy. First commercialised by the American greetings card industry as a much-needed shot in the arm after Christmas, Valentine's Day has spread throughout the world.

Kampala florists peddle overpriced bouquets of red "sweetheart" roses, bred for productivity alone at the cost of size and fragrance. Gift shops sell heart-shaped boxes of chocolates alongside red satin lingerie. Restaurants and Hotels compete to lure couples for Valentine's day dinners and overnight stays. And yesterday, in a piece of stunning marketing, I saw Lifeguard condoms getting in on the act. In the midst of all this tawdry marketing, it's a wonder that the banks have so far failed to push short term unsecured loans out to the amorous to finance the celebrations. I can see it now: "the Lovers' Loan" repayable over six months.

Still, I shouldn't be such a killjoy. After all, the global demand for roses always leads to a spike in prices in the first two weeks in February, providing East African growers with a much-needed contribution towards their profitability. The floriculture industry is a huge employer of unskilled and semi-skilled labour in rural areas and generates considerable foreign exchange inflows to the regional economy.

Pearl of Africa

The expression "Pearl of Africa" to describe Uganda is popularly attributed to Winston Churchill. In his book My African Journey, published in 1908, Churchill described Uganda as, "...from end to end a beautiful garden..... the exuberance of vegetation...scarcely describable" Churchill was especially complimentary about the kingdom of Buganda: "endowed with unique environmental attributes, with a remarkably and unexpectedly vibrant, structured and cordial social and political system nestled out of reach of the outside world." Such a positive view of African society was, both then and even now, unusual: the Zeitgeist of the time was more of the Heart of Darkness school of thought, describing Africans as primitive and savage, and in need of proselytising and civilizing. Elsewhere, Churchill does indeed describe Uganda as "the Pearl" but the description had, in fact, been earlier used by both Speke and Stanley. Given his voracious appetite for reading, it is unlikely that the young Churchill had not been aware of this view.

Regardless of its origin, what is not in dispute is its accuracy. Uganda still has the most wonderful environment. Over the Christmas holidays, my two sons and I visited Queen Elizabeth National Park in SW Uganda and enjoyed chimpanzee tracking in the Kyambura Gorge, a boat trip along the Kazinga Channel and several drives through the northern sector of the park. Our journey took us past crater lakes and the foothills of the Rwenzori (pictured above) between Fort Portal and Kasese, the Ankole tea extates at Bushenyi and through the savannah lands between Mbarara and Masaka. A delight! The following week, we also made a short visit to Jinja, for a day's whitewater rafting on the Nile, a day both thrilling and terrifying in equal measure. For once, the tourism slogan chosen by Uganda - Gifted by Nature - is no exaggeration.

Ugandans are justifiably proud of the name 'Pearl of Africa". As evidence, many Ugandan organizations have chosen “Pearl” in their names. My own favourite, until recently, was the superb Pearl range of sauces, jams and pickles manufactured in Kasese - the chilli and garlic sauce is second to none. But now there is a new Pearl, Pearl Capital Partners, formed last year to be the fund management business for AAC’s successor funds, the African Seed Investment Fund and the AAC Fund (in formation). My colleagues and I are proud of being one of the very few venture capital / private equity fund managers resident in Uganda, and what better name to choose to assert our Ugandan connection?

True, Pearl lacks originality, but then again, imagination and originality are not usually associated with the focus on facts, figures and empirical analysis required by successful venture capital and private equity investment managers.

Twelfth Night

After a full year off from Kampala Amateur Dramatics (during which time I am compelled to admit that KADS standards have risen considerably), I will be doing the March production, William Shakespeare's comedy Twelfth Night at the National Theatre in Kampala. Early last year I completed an adaptation of Euripides The Bacchae, but, probably wisely, have decided that Twelfth Night will be much more of an audience-pleaser, with its blend of farce, mistaken identity, cross-dressing and wit. Auditions will be at the National Theatre on 17 & 18th January, with the main challenge being the identification of a credible pair of twins.....