Collapse

This is the Rwanda Genocide Museum in Kigali. Residents and visitors alike are reminded of the Rwandese catastrophe in 1994.

In his book, Collapse, Jared Diamond provides a history of the many forces which lead societies to decline and fall. One chapter is devoted to Rwanda, which he analyses in the context of Thomas Malthus's bleak 200-year old theory: human population growth is exponential, whereas agricultural production growth is linear, and therefore population will expand until it consumes all available food unless it is halted by one or more of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.



Malthus's theory has aroused considerable debate and emotion for many years. It has been rejected by many academics on the basis of what has actually happened. The global population has, after all, grown by a factor of 10 since the beginning of the 19th century without absolute disaster. This achievement owes a great deal to scientific and technological advancement: without the Haber-Bosch process to convert atmospheric nitrogen into fertiliser, without the development of high yielding hybrid crops, and without the invention of the instruments of deforestation humankind would have run out of food long ago. And we may yet stave off failure in the food supply for some time to come: we are after all yet to possess the technologies to exploit even a fraction of the world's marine resources. We have also managed to change reproductive behaviour. Voluntarily, through the adoption of contraception, and, in some less-than-liberal countries, through compulsory legislation limiting the number of children per family. Indeed, so effective a tool has contraception proved to be that economic threats from an ageing population - for example in Japan and many European countries - are becoming a matter of great concern.


However, Malthus may still be correct, if not on a global scale, but at the level of particular economies. There is certainly reason to believe that the failures of the Mayan and Khmer civilisations were driven by population growth leading to environmental destruction, and, in Collapse, Diamond argues that the Rwandese genocide was in part driven by the same factors. "Friends who visited Rwanda in 1984 sensed an ecological disaster in the making. The whole country looked like a garden..... Steep hills were being farmed right up to their crests. Even the most elementary measures that could have minimised soil erosion, such as terracing, plowing along contours and providing fallow cover of vegetation..... were not being practiced." (Certainly, when I visited Rwanda in 2002, it seemed as if every square metre of available land was being cultivated, right up to the edge of the mountain top forests that are home to Rwanda's precious population of mountain gorillas). The median farm size had shrunk to less than quarter of an acre. Under these circumstances, increasing numbers of Rwandese were unable to feed themselves and their families. Family tensions and disputes over inheritance became more widespread. Diamond concludes his Rwanda discussion by asserting that population increase was a contributory factor to the 1994 genocide

In the broader African context, this is interesting. The population of the continent as a whole has exploded over the past 40 years. Food production has increased , despite inefficient farming techniques, as a result of the widespread adoption of new crops (especially those originating from the Americas). Maternal and child mortality rates have drastically improved. Conflict has - despite external news coverage - significantly decreased. This creates extraordinary statistics. For example, more than 50% of the population of Niger and Uganda is aged 16 and under. Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and many other African countries have demographic profiles which are not dissimilar. An opportunity - economists like to call it a demographic dividend - but also a threat of social unrest from a relatively poorly educated, unskilled, but rapidly increasing labour force. Could other countries in Africa be at threat of a Rwandese disaster?

In this context, the current trend for large-scale investors - both public and private - in acquiring massive landholdings is relevant. Considerable publicity has recently been given to "land-grabbing" in Africa. There is an entire website devoted to the topic (www.farmlandgrab.org). The World Bank has published a report into land acquisition in Africa. The conversion of agricultural land from food to biofuel production comes in for special attention. Rightly so - in the context of weak governance, low levels of transparency, traditional land rights and a rapidly increasing population - large-scale land acquisition presents a considerable long term social and economic risk. Let us hope that the countries most at risk will sign up for and implement the World Bank's recommendations of how to manage the process.

In praise of millet

When I was a child growing up in suburban England, I thought millet was birdseed. I would see it in budgerigar cages at the local pet shop. I loved birds and longed to keep a budgie of my own, but because my mother didn't like caged birds, I was never allowed to have one. I was also very interested in wild birds and used, with more success, to pester my parents to buy something called Swoop, a mixture of seeds formulated specially to attract wild birds to gardens. Swoop mostly consisted of millet, niger, maize and sunflower seed chips. Regular visitors to our bird table were the workaday sparrows, starlings, robins, blue tits and blackbirds of Southern England, but occasionally exciting newcomers dropped in - bullfinches, nuthatches, mistle thrushes, redwings, goldfinches, and many others.

Millet is one of the few widely-consumed staple crops indigenous to Africa. Maize, potatoes and cassava are all imported from the Americas; bananas, rice and wheat originate from Asia and the Middle East, but millet, along with sorghum and yam, is an original African staple. I first consumed millet in the form of toh, a brown, sticky, slightly sour porridge, in the baking heat and dust of Ouahigouya in northern Burkina Faso many years ago. In Burkina - and across much of the Sahel - millet is an important crop. It is ground and cooked into breads or porridge, or, as I also discovered, it is fermented and made into a sour and cloudy beer.

Once harvested, millet keeps extremely well and is seldom attacked by pests. Its long storage capacity makes millet essential to food security strategies for poorer farming communities in Africa, especially across the Sahel. Plus, it is a remarkably resilient crop. In the words of ICRISAT, quoted in Securing the Harvest: "We are talking about a crop...... that grows where not even weeds can survive; a crop that has been improved by farmers for thousands of years; a crop that produces nourishment from the poorest soils in the driest regions in the hottest climates". Not only does it grow in the most marginal land, and keep well, but millet is nutritionally superior to maize and rice. It has a higher protein and oil content than most grains (especially important in Africa where oil crops in semi-arid ecosystems are scarce).

These features make it all the stranger that millet is one of the so-called "orphan" crops in sub-Saharan Africa. At least until recently, little attention has been placed by research organisations in Africa in developing hybrid millet varieties to increase crop yields, despite the enormous success of hybrid millet crops in India. This oversight is, however, being remedied. The photo above, taken from the Gates Foundation website, shows a field of improved millet in Western Kenya. The importance of millet was briefly discussed at the recent African Green Revolution Forum, whereupon my neighbour leaned towards me and asked "Tom, what exactly do you do with millet?" My response was quick as a flash. "You mill it", I said. It was hard to resist the pun.

It would be unwise, of course, to over-praise millet. Even in improved hybrid varieties, its yields are lower than most other staples. Drought-tolerance and hardiness has its price. While in field, it is also prone to attacks by many pests. The Quelea bird, in particular, is attracted to millet fields and its flocks can decimate crops in the space of a few hours. Hardly surprising, given my first acquaintance with millet. Birdseed.

The African Green Revolution - Accra

I had the privilege of participating in the African Green Revolution Forum in Accra last week. It was enormously uplifting to attend this event - some 800 delegates gathered together to develop plans and share ideas on how to revitalize African agriculture.

Along with all the pomp and ceremony that accompanies events like this, the content of the Forum was deeply thought-provoking, in particular the emphasis on the need for both public and private sector investment to unlock Africa's agricultural potential. Anyone with an interest in investing in the sector is well-advised to visit the Forum's website http://agforum.com/ for extensive coverage of the discussions and agreed actions.


Needless to say, given my own particular professional interests, support to the seed sector figured highly on my agenda at the Forum. It was gratifying to hear about the numerous initiatives underway to support seed research, development and commercialization, though much more needs to be done at a policy level to accelerate the release of new seed varieties. In particular, I would like to see national research organisations - and individual plant breeders - able to secure financial rewards from varieties successfully launched into the market. Well-structured incentives to breeders and researchers would almost certainly increase the flow of new and improved varieties to farmers - and numerous models exist from North American and European research institutions. Having said that, robust systems for the registration, protection and enforcement of Intellectual Property rights are also required (and are absent in many African countries).


On a lighter note, I certainly can't complain about the hotel accommodation in Accra. Having initially been disappointed to have been booked by the organisers to stay at the Holiday Inn close to Kotoka airport - rather than having an ocean view at the Labadi Beach Hotel - my disappointment was assuaged on discovering on arrival at the Holiday Inn that my room had been upgraded, to the extraordinary dimensions of the Presidential Suite, no less!

Reasons to be cheerful (Part 3)

What is it about the music we listen to during our late teens? I heard the late great Ian Dury's Reasons to be Cheerful on the radio yesterday, for the first time in the last 20 years. It was like meeting an old friend after a long absence - Dury's harsh smoker's faux-cockney voice rhyming the good things in life.

For me, it was good to visit Malawi again earlier this month. It was my first proper visit since 2001. Back then, Malawi was visibly the poorest country I had experienced. Buildings were old and dilapidated; there were few vehicles on the roads; people appeared poor: tattered clothes, small, often barefoot. Economic statistics confirmed the evidence of my own eyes. GDP per capital was the lowest in Southern Africa; wages were, in dollar terms, far lower than in Kenya and Tanzania; secondary school enrolment rates were low; and life expectancy at birth was well below 50 (partly due to high HIV infection rates). It was hard to think up any reasons to be cheerful. Malawi is small and landlocked. It is relatively densely populated. It lacks mineral resources. With the exception of Lake Malawi itself, still a favoured stop-over point for backpackers and overlander tourists on their journeys through East and Southern Africa, it lacks obvious tourist attractions by comparison with its neighbours. All in all, prospects seemed bleak.

But, while it is still rated one of the poorest countries in the world, Malawi has achieved something big in recent years. It has doubled its agricultural output. From requiring food aid a few years ago, it is now an exporter of food in the region. Its increase in agricultural production has been driven by the adoption of the Agricultural Inputs Subsidy Programme. It is a simple scheme. Vouchers for seeds and fertilizer are issued to named individuals, identified at community level. The vouchers are exchanged for the appropriate product at participating agro-dealers throughout the country. Dealers return them to seed producers and fertilizer importers, who then redeem them with the Government for cash. The results from the programme have been impressive, even after taking into account good rainfall in the past three years. Malawi’s grain silos are overflowing and poor harvests in Zimbabwe, in particular, have resulted in a ready market for the surplus. It has also created an opportunity for seed companies, large and small alike, to increase seed production, bring new varieties to market and invest in expansion. Reasons to be cheerful (Part 1).

This simple, top-down approach initially failed to win the approval and support of donor organizations. However, after its initial success, donors have scrambled aboard the programme, eager to nail their colours to its mast, though they continue to express concern over how long it will be required. It would seem that the development specialists that populate most donor organizations have not yet understood that their home economies almost all provide subsidies – in one form or another – in support of their agricultural sectors, and have no plans to stop. Food security (not to mention the votes of rural communities) are generally considered too important to leave to market forces alone. Why should Africa be an exception?

Has life in Malawi changed? Statistics suggest that its economy is growing and that GDP per capita is increasing, but these statistics tell us little about the multi-dimensional elements of poverty. Poverty alleviation is not something that can be measured using economic indicators alone, nor even by the logframes so beloved by central planners, economists, and development specialists, but by simpler things, like the ownership of bicycles, footwear, cell phones and iron sheets for roofing – the things that provide evidence of real disposable income.

During my visit, I was lucky enough to pay a brief visit to Namitembo village in Southern Malawi. This Catholic parish is supported by St Bridgets Church in Seattle. It has a simple furrow irrigation scheme which enables crops to be grown in the dry season, a rarity in Malawi where little or nothing grows during for the 6-month long dry southern African winter. It has a small health centre, a primary school and an Agriculture and Trade vocational education college. The two men pictured above, Felix Chigwanda and Johann Chisambo, are leading the gradual adoption of new ways of doing things in an environment that is resistant to change. This year, Namitembo is growing seed maize, taking advantage of the dry season to maintain the necessary crop isolation required in order to achieve the requisite genetic purity. This visit served as a reminder of how real change is gradual and generational, and driven as much, if not more, by community initiatives as by central policy. Reasons to be cheerful (Part 2).

One thing that hasn’t changed is street food, Malawi-style. In many parts of Africa, hawkers stand by the roadside, offering food for sale to passing buses and other traffic. In Uganda, grilled chicken, served on a stick, is the most popular offering, along with bananas and other fruit. In Malawi, the main roadside delicacy on offer is field mice, roasted and served fresh, 100 Malawi Kwachas for four, served head, tail and fur intact. It would be fair to say that it’s an acquired taste, but at least it makes a virtue out of pest control. Reasons to be cheerful (Part 3).

Reject the binary

In the month of Ramadan, what better than to read a book by the controversial academic Tariq Ramadan?

I have just finished reading his latest work: the Quest for Meaning. Professor of Islamic studies at Oxford, Tariq attracts, some might say courts, controversy, presumably because of his willingness to challenge existing orthodoxies. From start to finish, I found The Quest for Meaning exhilarating; refreshing in the clarity of its language in dealing with complex issues, in particular the ways in which different societies interact in the globalised world.

I was therefore very surprised to find several highly critical reviews of the book – one in particular describing it as “philosophy as candyfloss” and comparing it unfavourably to Alain de Botton’s work, among others. I can only assume that the New Statesman reviewer believes that complex ideas and concepts require traditionally impenetrable academic discourse. He ignores the fact that many great philosophers have expressed their arguments and propositions using simple and accessible language. Furthermore, the reference to Alain de Botton betrays an unpleasant form of academic snobbery, most likely driven by envy of Botton’s success in appealing to a popular market.

Tariq’s book opens with an unusual dedication, to the semi-colon, “which in a world of simplified communication and binary judgements reconciles us with the plurality of propositions and with the welcome nuances…. of complex realities”. And this dedication sets the tone for the book, especially in relation to Tariq’s appeal to his readers to respect diversity and accept that there are different histories, different cultures and different truths. He argues that we now live in an age of the instant, where groupthink on a continental, even global, scale governs our attitudes; where people are no longer interested in ideas, beliefs, principles and ethics, but bow to their fears and anxieties, seeking comfort in the search for safety and security. He asserts that governments everywhere understand this, and politicians exploit these fears, to the extent that ignoring human rights in the name of security has become acceptable, even desirable, in the minds of their electorate. To counter these unfortunate trends, Tariq encourages us to accept uncertainty, the grey areas of possibility, and to try to understand and respect the diverse worlds where truths and value systems intersect. Sadly, however, he notes that we are no longer interested. Rather, our attitude seems to be (my words) “Let someone else do the thinking – I’m too busy updating my facebook profile.”

This lamentable tendency towards binary judgements extends to my own efforts to raise capital from investors to invest in the East African agriculture sector. The AAC investment proposition is to identify good quality agriculture-related businesses and provide them with affordably-priced and patient capital for expansion and growth. We define our success according to two measures: in financial terms, from the amount of capital we will ultimately return to investors; and in social and developmental terms, through the achievements of our investees as they grow and increase the supply of goods, services and employment in their markets. This is a fairly simple proposition, yet it causes surprising confusion among potential investors. I regularly encounter comments such as "ah, so you're sub-commercial" or “what is impact investing, anyway. Just another word for cheap money? You guys are distorting the market.” or “No, we don’t understand that sort of thing. Maximising financial returns is what matters. The social returns will follow”. Regrettably, the concept of responsible long term investment for economic growth no longer seems to matter in the eyes of most owners of capital.

Antony Bugg-Levine, of the Rockefeller Foundation and one of the founders of the Global Impact Investing Network, urges investors to “reject the binary”, the either/or simplistic judgement that underpins the arguments against the double bottom-line investment approach. It is probably true that in a well-functioning efficient capital market the concept of providing affordable and patient capital would be irrelevant, but events of the past few years have served as reminders that even in the most developed of economies, capital markets require a strong regulatory environment alongside the forces of industry competition.

And what happens when capital markets aren’t working efficiently? Well, in East Africa, the supply of capital is short. Mealy-mouthed bankers argue that the cost of credit is not the issue, but the availability of and access to credit. They use this argument to justify massive spreads between deposit and lending interest rates. Under these circumstances, is short term oligopolistic pricing the best proxy for defining long term commercially sustainable rates of return? Where there is market failure, the market alone is not enough. In the world of finance, of commercial lending, of private equity and venture capital, of differing investor and investee needs, surely there is room for the acceptance of a plurality of approaches.

A little piece of paradise

I had the great pleasure one night last week of staying at the Norman Carr Cottage on the shores of Lake Malawi. The late Norman Carr’s name lives on, not just as a result of his devotion to conservation in the Luangwa Valley in Eastern Zambia, but also at his lakeside cottage in Monkey Bay on the shores of Lake Malawi, now transformed into a delightful eight bedroom lodge.

“A little piece of paradise” is the marketing pitch. On approaching the entrance to the lodge, off a dusty marram road through the yellow and grey of a Southern African winter, there is little to suggest the green oasis paradise ahead, dominated by its great sycamore fig tree.

But then, a warm welcome from Taffy and Jenny, the South African proprietors, always on hand to entertain their guests.

A sundowner boatride on the clear and bottomless waters of the lake; the western sky on fire; the only sounds of children playing by the beach and of two hippos wallowing in the reedy shallows.

More drinks by the lake while Taffy regales his guests with the story of Bentley Palmer, who went for an afternoon’s boat trip on Lake Malawi with his wife and mother-in-law, suffered engine failure and miraculously washed up, unharmed, over two weeks later some one hundred miles further north on the Tanzanian shore.

A superb dinner on a raised platform; the lights of fishing boats out on the lake dwarfed by the Van Gogh-bright starry sky.

An uninterrupted and dreamless sleep followed by a warm morning shower in the roofless bathroom.

A magnificent breakfast: strong tea and fresh fruit followed by brown toast buttered with fresh avocado and topped with thick slices of back bacon. The breakfast would be excellent anywhere, but in the bright light of a Lake Malawi morning, it is close to perfection.

The Norman Carr Cottage is a great big piece of paradise.

What's happened to the Pride of Africa?

Earlier this year I became a Flying Blue Platinum card holder, courtesy of having flown at least 60 separate flights on Kenya Airways during 2009. This might give the appearance that I am satisfied with the service provided by Kenya Airways. This, however, is wrong. I am, in fact, extremely dissatisfied. It simply serves to demonstrate the virtual monopoly that Kenya Airways enjoys in the East African market.

A few years ago, Kenya Airways was quite a good airline. Now, its idea of inflight refreshment is a hot greasy cellophane-encased, cholesterol-packed meat pie accompanied by a stale slab of cake wrapped in a plastic bag. Worse, the tea and coffee on offer bear little relation to Kenya’s matchless provenance and, to compound the fault, they are accompanied by something called Cremora. This non-dairy creamer is, in fact, made by Nestle from hydrogenated palm oil and glucose syrup. “Would you like some sweetened margarine with your tea, sir” is a fairly revolting proposition, but that’s what non dairy creamer is, more or less. (For anyone who doubts the truth of this statement, just search YouTube for "Non-Dairy creamer explosion"). I mean, what’s wrong with a milk jug? Or, indeed, scrapping the free refreshment service altogether in favour of a pay-as-you-go snack bar, as many low-cost international airlines have done?

But the poverty of inflight service pales into insignificance against Kenya Airways persistent flight delays, which, at least on certain routes based on my own direct experience, have become the rule, not the exception. That these delays are generally on routes where Kenya Airways enjoys a virtual monopoly fans the flames of passenger suspicion. Is it coincidence, or does Kenya Airways take better care of passengers on contested, rather than uncontested routes? Today, for example, I left Entebbe at 5.10 am in order to make the connection to Lilongwe. On arrival in Nairobi at about 6.30 am, my colleague and I were informed that our flight to Lilongwe (not a well-contested route), scheduled for departure at 8.25 am was delayed by about 30 minutes……. 9.00 am became 9.40 am, 9.40 am became 11.00 am and then, ultimately 1,00 pm. No apology was made, except for a passive statement that I have become all-too-familiar with.

“The flight delay was caused by operational problems. Any inconvenience is highly regretted”

Astonishingly, Kenya Airways regularly features high on the charts of the Pricewaterhouse Coopers annual survey, in association with the East African newspaper, of the most respected companies in East Africa. I am not sure quite how to explain this, except to speculate that the survey respondents don’t actually travel on Kenya Airways very often.

Come on Kenya Airways. Surely the self-styled Pride of Africa can do better than this.