Wilderness

About 20% of the world's total landmass is in Africa. It's a big place. Most of it is wilderness. Whether it is arid or semi-arid land, jungle, swamp, mountains, woodland or savannah, it is probably unsuitable for agriculture and can only support very low human population densities.

These wild places are often turned into national parks, beloved by tourists and offering some measure of protection to Africa’s priceless biodiversity. From Mana Pools on the banks of the Zambezi river in Zimbabwe, to the vast Ruaha and Selous reserves in Southern Tanzania,from the unparalleled Tanzanian Serengeti and its Kenyan continuation of the Maasai Mara to the virgin rainforests of Gabon, well-heeled tourists marvel at Africa’s big game and birdlife from the comfort of their 4WD vehicles and luxurious lodges. Tourist income helps protect and sustain these wildlife refuges, but beyond the boundaries of the parks, the surrounding wilderness is home to dwindling numbers of African pastoralists and their flocks

This wilderness is now starting to attract the attention of foreign investors with deep pockets and a long term view on food prices. The argument goes something like this:-

The world's population is set to grow by as much as 25% over the next 30 years. That means, ceteris paribus, a corresponding increase in global food demand. Most land suitable for agriculture around the world is already being worked very hard. Therefore, to meet the increase in food demand, more agricultural land is needed and/or crop yields must increase substantially. So -

Q. Where in the world is there land available for agriculture? A. Africa.

Q. Where in the world can crop yields be significantly increased? A. Africa

Based on this argument, a new scramble for Africa is slowly gathering pace. Sovereign governments from the Middle East and Asia are buying leases from their African counterparts on huge tracts of land with apparent agricultural potential, in competition with a battalion of newly-formed private capital investment funds from Europe and North America.

I'm not sure that the investors have got this quite right, for a variety of factors. First, most of the land which is suitable for large-scale agriculture is probably already being intensively cultivated by smallholders. Second, there is very little land of any description which is actually empty. It is almost certainly being ranched by pastoralists, with their traditional, if undocumented, land rights. Third, large scale agriculture requires large-scale management, with a blend of agronomic, engineering, financial and administrative skills and experience, which are in very short supply in the “bundu”. And fourth, where are the markets for the production? Africa still has a rapid population growth rate and it is by no means certain that export markets will be accessible by the owners due to food security concerns.

My hope and belief is that the African wilderness will resist the bulldozers and chainsaws and remain, if not unscathed, largely intact. The world would be greatly impoverished without it.